Forecast real-world outcomes.

This prediction resolves as “Yes” if Apple officially announces a new consumer hardware category that is distinct from existing product lines before 31 December 2026. Otherwise, it resolves as “No.”

This prediction resolves as “Yes” if the US Federal Reserve announces at least one official interest rate cut before 30 September 2026. Otherwise, the outcome resolves as “No.”

This prediction resolves as “Yes” if OpenAI publicly announces or releases a model explicitly named GPT-5 on or before 31 December 2026. If no such announcement or release occurs by that date, the outcome resolves as “No.”