Active Predictions

Governments have increasingly explored blockchain-based settlement for transparency and efficiency. This prediction resolves YES if a G20 country publicly confirms the issuance or settlement of a government bond or treasury instrument on a public blockchain before 31 December 2027. It resolves NO if no such settlement occurs by that date.

Tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) include on-chain representations of traditional financial instruments such as bonds, treasuries, real estate, and commodities. This prediction resolves YES if publicly verifiable on-chain data shows that the combined value of tokenized RWAs exceeds $1 trillion USD before 31 December 2027. It resolves NO if this threshold is not reached by that date.

Danksharding is a core part of Ethereum’s long-term scalability roadmap, designed to significantly increase data availability and reduce transaction costs through proto-danksharding and full data sharding. This prediction resolves YES if Ethereum mainnet successfully deploys full danksharding in production, meaning the protocol supports multiple data shards as defined in the official Ethereum roadmap, and the feature is live on mainnet before 31 December 2026. It resolves NO if full danksharding is not live on Ethereum mainnet by that date, or if the roadmap is materially altered or abandoned.

This prediction resolves as “Yes” if Apple officially announces a new consumer hardware category that is distinct from existing product lines before 31 December 2026. Otherwise, it resolves as “No.”

This prediction resolves as “Yes” if the US Federal Reserve announces at least one official interest rate cut before 30 September 2026. Otherwise, the outcome resolves as “No.”

This prediction resolves as “Yes” if OpenAI publicly announces or releases a model explicitly named GPT-5 on or before 31 December 2026. If no such announcement or release occurs by that date, the outcome resolves as “No.”